Hiney Flu

Interesting news today, much of it is very encouraging. First Mexico is backing down on its claims of over a hundred dead. They now only claim 12 confirmed cases. They will not comment on how many suspected cases. The initial reports of this virus effecting young adults primarily is no longer being reported. This was the most alarming factor of the news to me and now seems much more remote and less threatening.

Second, genetic analysis of the virus has been reported and apparently although it is very similar to the 1918 Spanish flu, it lacks many markers for genes that seem to signify increased virulence in flu viruses. To put this more plainly, it doesn’t look like a killer. It looks far weaker than initially reported and possibly even weaker than normal seasonal flu.

However, this is still a novel virus and we have no innate immunity to it. So although initial fears of its potential mortality or lethality may have been in error, fears of its morbidity or ability to cause disease are still quite valid. It is currently classified as a level 5 pandemic threat. I believe it will almost certainly become a level 6 pandemic. US cases went up more than 40% again over the last 24 hours to140 and new cases have been reported in several countries including Austria, Switzerland, and Germany.

I have seen the beast in the office. At least I suspect I have. A family in our practice tested positive for Influenza A and the state lab is testing to see if it is Swine Flu. We have not seen flu in our area for over a month now so although it could be sporadic seasonal Flu A, it is very likely the current strain of concern. These patients are not very sick, however. One child had already recovered on her own, and the 6 month old baby only had a fever and runny nose and cough. I know of several other doctors with cases like this, none of whom are very sick, but I expect the number of confirmed cases to continue to rise as these tests are completed.

Precautions are being taken to stop viral spread and even though my personal impressions are that they are probably going to wind up being overkill, I still fully support them. Schools nearby have closed for a week. Large group events are being postponed. This is the right decision. We still have an evolving picture of this virus and when you deal with people’s lives you do not gamble.

On the waste of government effort front, the effort to rename this virus continues. Although it is made up of porcine flu virus with small components of avian and human flu virus that has been found in pigs for decades, it is no longer PC to call in Swine flu. We are now to refer to it as the H1N1 Influenza A virus. I’m now going to call it the Hiney Flu for short.

And our great and powerful Vice President put his foot in his mouth again today saying to avoid travel in planes or subways. His staff, used to this by now quickly tried to temper his words to stay on message with the rest of the White House’s message. The travel industry is very upset. But I don’t think he’s all that wrong. I would avoid large crowds or unnecessary travel for the next week or so and see what happens.