Interesting news today, much of it is very encouraging. First Mexico is backing down on its claims of over a hundred dead. They now only claim 12 confirmed cases. They will not comment on how many suspected cases. The initial reports of this virus effecting young adults primarily is no longer being reported. This was the most alarming factor of the news to me and now seems much more remote and less threatening.
Second, genetic analysis of the virus has been reported and apparently although it is very similar to the 1918 Spanish flu, it lacks many markers for genes that seem to signify increased virulence in flu viruses. To put this more plainly, it doesn’t look like a killer. It looks far weaker than initially reported and possibly even weaker than normal seasonal flu.
However, this is still a novel virus and we have no innate immunity to it. So although initial fears of its potential mortality or lethality may have been in error, fears of its morbidity or ability to cause disease are still quite valid. It is currently classified as a level 5 pandemic threat. I believe it will almost certainly become a level 6 pandemic. US cases went up more than 40% again over the last 24 hours to140 and new cases have been reported in several countries including Austria, Switzerland, and Germany.
I have seen the beast in the office. At least I suspect I have. A family in our practice tested positive for Influenza A and the state lab is testing to see if it is Swine Flu. We have not seen flu in our area for over a month now so although it could be sporadic seasonal Flu A, it is very likely the current strain of concern. These patients are not very sick, however. One child had already recovered on her own, and the 6 month old baby only had a fever and runny nose and cough. I know of several other doctors with cases like this, none of whom are very sick, but I expect the number of confirmed cases to continue to rise as these tests are completed.
Precautions are being taken to stop viral spread and even though my personal impressions are that they are probably going to wind up being overkill, I still fully support them. Schools nearby have closed for a week. Large group events are being postponed. This is the right decision. We still have an evolving picture of this virus and when you deal with people’s lives you do not gamble.
On the waste of government effort front, the effort to rename this virus continues. Although it is made up of porcine flu virus with small components of avian and human flu virus that has been found in pigs for decades, it is no longer PC to call in Swine flu. We are now to refer to it as the H1N1 Influenza A virus. I’m now going to call it the Hiney Flu for short.
And our great and powerful Vice President put his foot in his mouth again today saying to avoid travel in planes or subways. His staff, used to this by now quickly tried to temper his words to stay on message with the rest of the White House’s message. The travel industry is very upset. But I don’t think he’s all that wrong. I would avoid large crowds or unnecessary travel for the next week or so and see what happens.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Pig flu update
Our clinics are starting to get flu cases. We had 2 cases today of Influenza A. We're testing for Swine Flu, but the diagnosis is likely.
Us cases increased 50% again to 91. NO deaths. I'm sorry, I do not count a case of this disease acquired in Mexico as a US death. This poor 2 year-old's death is tragic but does not raise my concern level.
The WHO has increased the threat level to 5. I hold out little hope that we will not go to 6. I think the cat's out of the bag and we will have a flu pandemic. BUT! This flu does not appear from current observation to be any different from normal seasonal flu if you look at it's behavior outside of Mexico. I still hold out a good hope that this is just going to amount to an extra flu season in late Spring. My crystal ball (which has never been real reliable to be honest) thinks we will wind up with thousands of deaths worldwide like we do with normal flu, but not be a worldwide plague like we might fear. It could peter out and be far less. It could go the other direction.
I have added the CDC RSS feed to this blog for easy access to their updates and bulletins.
My advice, use good hygiene practices, stay home if you are sick, and avoid large crowds. I think the Hockey, and Basketball playoffs are going to suffer.
Us cases increased 50% again to 91. NO deaths. I'm sorry, I do not count a case of this disease acquired in Mexico as a US death. This poor 2 year-old's death is tragic but does not raise my concern level.
The WHO has increased the threat level to 5. I hold out little hope that we will not go to 6. I think the cat's out of the bag and we will have a flu pandemic. BUT! This flu does not appear from current observation to be any different from normal seasonal flu if you look at it's behavior outside of Mexico. I still hold out a good hope that this is just going to amount to an extra flu season in late Spring. My crystal ball (which has never been real reliable to be honest) thinks we will wind up with thousands of deaths worldwide like we do with normal flu, but not be a worldwide plague like we might fear. It could peter out and be far less. It could go the other direction.
I have added the CDC RSS feed to this blog for easy access to their updates and bulletins.
My advice, use good hygiene practices, stay home if you are sick, and avoid large crowds. I think the Hockey, and Basketball playoffs are going to suffer.
The first US casualty of the flu has been announced. This is tragic news for the family and loved ones of the 2 year -old. It is horrible when children die. This is however normal flu behavior, still. Flu deaths are much more common in those younger than 5 and older than 50. So this does not change the fact that the flu outside Mexico has not acted like the flu inside Mexico. In Mexico the deaths have been clustered in young adults. That is much more worrisome for a killer flu that kills by cytokine storm.
So stay yellow. Keep watch for a change in the mortality pattern. Do not panic.
So stay yellow. Keep watch for a change in the mortality pattern. Do not panic.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
H1NI? flu update
There are from the best I can gather only 64 confirmed US cases today. 7 however are now hospitalized severe cases. There are also 2 unconfirmed US deaths. There is no info on any other nation having severe cases as far as I can tell.
New York officials admit to likely having many hundreds of School children sick with what is likely the Mexican flu strain at this time. It also appears to have human to human transmission in the US, another key to pandemic potential.
Pandemic does not necessarily mean catastrophe. What one needs to keep in mind is that 2 out of the 3 20th century pandemics were mild. Only the 1918 one was a disaster.
So, this is not yet a pandemic although the risk level has been raised higher than usual of it becoming one. And this is not necessarily a deadly plague if it becomes one. The key to watch is the rate of spread. So far cases are increasing by 50-100% daily. This is far too quick for comfort. Second, watch for its mortality or lethality. No confirmed deaths outside of Mexico, yet. Possibly 2 in California though. We’ll need to watch this.
On the government stupidity front, our homeland security leader spent much of the day arguing over the name of the virus. Although proper nomenclature marks this as a swine flu due to its genetic composition, she worries about the negative effect on the pork industry and wants to rename it the H1N1 flu. Whatever….
New York officials admit to likely having many hundreds of School children sick with what is likely the Mexican flu strain at this time. It also appears to have human to human transmission in the US, another key to pandemic potential.
Pandemic does not necessarily mean catastrophe. What one needs to keep in mind is that 2 out of the 3 20th century pandemics were mild. Only the 1918 one was a disaster.
So, this is not yet a pandemic although the risk level has been raised higher than usual of it becoming one. And this is not necessarily a deadly plague if it becomes one. The key to watch is the rate of spread. So far cases are increasing by 50-100% daily. This is far too quick for comfort. Second, watch for its mortality or lethality. No confirmed deaths outside of Mexico, yet. Possibly 2 in California though. We’ll need to watch this.
On the government stupidity front, our homeland security leader spent much of the day arguing over the name of the virus. Although proper nomenclature marks this as a swine flu due to its genetic composition, she worries about the negative effect on the pork industry and wants to rename it the H1N1 flu. Whatever….
Monday, April 27, 2009
Update on pig sickness
The WHO has raised the threat level of possible pandemic by one level. A level four pandemic level means that people are now spreading it between each other in one country for a sustained period of time.
The number of cases has doubled in the last 24 hours. There are now 2000 cases of severe flu in Mexico and 20 swine flu cases reported in the US. This is very concerning if this rate of spread is maintained.
The disease is still mild outside of Mexico with no deaths reported outside that country. This is encouraging in that the disease may not have any lasting power to cause severe morbidity or mortality.
The CDC needs to start making a vaccine now. They haven’t decided whether to interrupt ongoing flu vaccine manufacture. This is foolhardy. This current crop of disease may cool down as the spring and summer temperatures warm up. But this quiescence can easily reverse itself next fall and winter with a resurgence of the disease at pandemic levels. Vaccine manufacture takes months and needs to be the top priority of the pharmaceutical companies and government.
My personal advice…cancel any travel plans you might have for Mexico in the upcoming weeks. Our government may not want to restrict travel, but health conscious individuals should in my opinion restrict their own travel voluntarily.
And in today’s display of government ignorance, several countries have banned the importation of US pork. You can’t get swine flu from eating pork, people!
And at home our CDC has suggested sending your friends and family a hand-washing e-greeting card. Makes one proud to see the genius behind our government disease experts at work, doesn’t it. Here’s the link for any of you who don’t believe this is real. http://is.gd/uL0Z
The number of cases has doubled in the last 24 hours. There are now 2000 cases of severe flu in Mexico and 20 swine flu cases reported in the US. This is very concerning if this rate of spread is maintained.
The disease is still mild outside of Mexico with no deaths reported outside that country. This is encouraging in that the disease may not have any lasting power to cause severe morbidity or mortality.
The CDC needs to start making a vaccine now. They haven’t decided whether to interrupt ongoing flu vaccine manufacture. This is foolhardy. This current crop of disease may cool down as the spring and summer temperatures warm up. But this quiescence can easily reverse itself next fall and winter with a resurgence of the disease at pandemic levels. Vaccine manufacture takes months and needs to be the top priority of the pharmaceutical companies and government.
My personal advice…cancel any travel plans you might have for Mexico in the upcoming weeks. Our government may not want to restrict travel, but health conscious individuals should in my opinion restrict their own travel voluntarily.
And in today’s display of government ignorance, several countries have banned the importation of US pork. You can’t get swine flu from eating pork, people!
And at home our CDC has suggested sending your friends and family a hand-washing e-greeting card. Makes one proud to see the genius behind our government disease experts at work, doesn’t it. Here’s the link for any of you who don’t believe this is real. http://is.gd/uL0Z
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Swine Flu update
6 confirmed cases in Canada, and in New Zeland. All cases outside of Mexico have been mild and self limited recovering on their own at home. Only one US patient was hospitalized. Why this disease killed at least 60 in Mexico is unclear at this point. So the spread of the disease is alarming, but the benign nature of the disease at this point seems encouraging.
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